A CoT strategy on Crude Oil
Full code inside
Quick one this week — I’m traveling to FIFA World Cup with the kids, so I’m keeping this short.
But I didn’t want to skip a week, and I’ve been sitting on a CoT strategy I really wanted to put in front of you.
(Heads-up: the CFTC’s CoT data is late. It was not published yesterday on the CFTC website and I don’t know why)
Let’s dive in the strategy. In short…
It trades Crude Oil (@CL), long only, on the 1440min
The signal comes straight out of the Commitments of Traders report
Here’s the catch: it is NOT crude oil’s own CoT. The report that times these trades belongs to a completely different market
Everyone tells you to wait for CoT extremes. This doesn’t. It uses a different trigger.
Two conditions to get in, one to get out. No stop. No profit target. No curve-fit machinery.
The numbers, net of commissions and slippage, 2007 to today: 253 trades, +$168,245, profit factor 2.25, 80% winners, worst drawdown about $24k.
If you take the exact same idea and follow a different player instead of the one we’re tracking, and you lose $192,360 (profit factor 0.61).
And btw, there are entire years it never fires a single trade (it sat out 2015, 2019, and 2022 completely).
Take a look at the performance:
